Mustard Jul Futures Edged Lower

NCDEX Jul Soybean closed lower for the fourth consecutive session this week on technical selling by market participants on hope of good sowing progress in coming weeks. Pace of sowing increase last week and now the deficit is only under 4% on year which was 48% in previous week. The area under soybean in the country was at 51.64 lakh ha as of last week, according to data released by the farm ministry. In Madhya Pradesh, area under soybean was at 28 lakh ha, down from 29 lakh ha on year. However, the acreage so far is higher than the normal area for the corresponding period, based on the average of last five years. As per latest report by SOPA, soymeal exports rose 22.5% on year to 136,000 tn. During Oct-Jun, the soymeal exports are estimated at 13.6 lakh tn, against 16.3 lakh tn in the year-ago period. The cabinet raised the minimum support price for soybean by 11.4% to Rs 3,399 per quintal but the futures have been higher than MSP.

Mustard Jul futures edged lower for the third successive session on Thursday due to fresh selling initiated by market participants after it touched 4 months high in the previous session. It jumped 3.1% on first 10 days in July on anticipation of improved meal and crushing demand. Recently, government increase import duty on soft edible oil by 10-15%.

For the first fortnight of July, the base import price of crude soyoil has been cut to $750 per tn from $752 per tn by the govt. As per SEA monthly report, as on June 1, country’ edible oil stock (in ports and pipeline) is at highest level ever at 26.6 lt putting pressure on domestic prices of edible oils.

According to SEA monthly update, palm oil imports into the country were down 33% and 46% for CPO and RBD Palmolein in May compared to last year. India’s palm oil imports dropped in May due to higher taxes on shipments while weaker rupees making imports expensive. Palm oil accounts for the bulk of the total edible oil imported annually, with most of the commodity imported from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Chana Aug futures surged higher as market participants again initiated fresh buying on expectation of good physical demand in coming months. It surged more than 11.3% or Rs.392 per quintal in first 12 days in July. Prices surged as government has extended the imports of dry peas for three more months which increase the physical demand from the traders and stockists.

Cotton closed higher on Thursday tracing firm international prices however, higher crop estimated by FAS India and increased cotton area as monsoon rains have now covered entire country is keeping the cap on price increase.

Jeera futures closed higher on Thursday on continued buying by the market participants. It is currently trading at 4 months high on anticipation of good exports demand. Cumin futures have jumped 16% this month from the lows and more than 27% last quarter starting April supported by anticipation of higher exports from China and Bangladesh due to restricted supplies from Syria. According to export data released by Commerce ministry, Jeera recorded its highest monthly exports of 33,458 tonnes in March while in April the exports were 74% higher on year at 25,900 tonnes. During FY 2017/18, country exported about 1,60,479 tonnes of jeera, up by 24.5% on year.

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